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06-30035C-07

June 10, 2013
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SUMMARY OF: A Special Report on the Use of Recidivism Rates for State Agencies, Recidivism Rates for Alaska Sex Offenders, March 8, 2007

Purpose of the Report

In accordance with Title 24 of the Alaska Statutes and a special request by the Legislative Budget and Audit Committee, we have conducted an audit of recidivism rates for a group of Alaska sex offenders. This audit was part of a larger review of recidivism rates of state rehabilitation programs – Use of Recidivism Rates by State Agencies, Overview of Current Practices (Audit Control No. 06-30035A-07). To facilitate the dissemination of results, the calculation of sex offender recidivism rates are contained in this report.

Scope and Methodology

Our scope included sex offenders convicted in Alaska of a sex offense that required the offender to register with the Department of Public Safety as a sex offender. Specifically, all offenders convicted between July 1, 1986 through December 31, 1987 were selected for review. The professional services of the Urban Institute were used for consulting on research design and advanced statistical analysis. The Urban Institute produced a sex offender recidivism report, included as Appendix A, that forms the basis for conclusions contained in this report.

Report Conclusions

The key recidivism conclusions are as follows:

  • 60.5 percent of sex offenders were rearrested for any crime within 15 years of their qualifying judgment and 52.4 percent were reconvicted within the same period.
  • 17.8 percent of the sex offenders were rearrested for sex [1] crimes within 15 years of their qualifying judgment and 10.1 percent were reconvicted for sex crimes during the same period.
  • Subsequent criminal activity data shows that 33 percent of the reconvicted offenders committed 72 percent of the crimes recommitted by the group overall.

Several variables were analyzed to determine their effect on recidivism. This analysis indicates:

  • Completion of the sex offender treatment while on community supervision did not impact an offender’s likelihood of being rearrested or reconvicted.
  • Being on community supervision did not impact an offender’s likelihood of being rearrested or reconvicted.
  • Sex offenders were less likely to be reconvicted while on supervision than after they were released from supervision.
  • Convictions for sex crimes were rare events and none of the variables reached statistical significance.
  • Sex offenders whose community supervision was revoked or who absconded from supervision were 2.7 times more likely to be rearrested.
  • Older offenders were significantly less likely to be rearrested or reconvicted for any crime.
  • Each additional time offenders were reincarcerated increased risk of rearrest and reconviction for any crime.
  • Alaska Natives or American Indians were at a higher risk for rearrest and reconviction for any crime compared to other ethnicities.
  • Those offenders that completed high school were less likely to be rearrested or reconvicted for any crime and those that completed more than high school were less likely to be rearrested for a sex crime.
  • Offenders were less likely to be rearrested/reconvicted for any crime and less likely to be rearrested for a sex crime with each additional year offenders spent incarcerated during the follow-up period.
  • Offenders were more likely to be rearrested or reconvicted with each additional year offenders spent incarcerated for their qualifying crime.

Footnotes
[1] Sex crimes are crimes that require the offender register as a sex offender.

Combined Use of Recidivism Rates by State Agencies Recidivism Rates for Alaska Sex Offenders
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